Andrew was a co-author of the National Freight Demand Study 2013 (an update to the initial NFDS undertaken in 2008). The NFDS provides a comprehensive assessment of the NZ freight sector and provides forecasts of future activity at both a nationwide and regional level. To examine the freight task in detail, the detailed production and movement of 29 commodities were investigated. For each of these commodities, information was built up from a wide range of published and unpublished sources and this was supported by discussions with a large number of participants in the freight sector. The steps involved for each commodity included:
- Identify the total size of the market and where possible the regional distribution of activities
- Determine the linkages between the areas where the goods are produced or imported and where they are consumed or exported.
In developing future freight forecasts, information was drawn from a wide range of sources including the views of industry stakeholders, forecasts from the Ministries, trade associations, key producers and other authoritative sources, and analysis of the recent and longer term trends in freight growth by commodity. These forecasts were supported by forecasts of key economic drivers such as population and GDP growth, particular factors affecting growth at a regional level, and an assessment of the potential impacts of supply constraints. Commodities were defined as primarily demand driven or supply constrained and appropriate indices based on both national macroeconomic and regional factors affecting demand and supply were developed.
