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Andrew was the economic lead to the project, as well as being the project’s freight and maritime advisor.

In 2013, the MOT undertook a detailed investigation of the proposal to relocate the South Island ferry terminal to Clifford Bay. The purpose of this process was to examine the commercial viability of Clifford Bay as a development requiring minimum investment and risk for the government. As part of the detailed investigation a comprehensive economic assessment was also undertaken, led by Andrew.

The economic case assessed both the conventional national cost benefit analysis (CBA) of the project as well as wider economic benefits (WEBs).

Andrew was instrumental in gaining buy-in across the three stakeholder agencies – MOT, NZTA and Treasury, to the approach taken and final deliverables.

Andrew was a co-author of the National Freight Demand Study 2013 (an update to the initial NFDS undertaken in 2008). The NFDS provides a comprehensive assessment of the NZ freight sector and provides forecasts of future activity at both a nationwide and regional level. To examine the freight task in detail, the detailed production and movement of 29 commodities were investigated. For each of these commodities, information was built up from a wide range of published and unpublished sources and this was supported by discussions with a large number of participants in the freight sector. The steps involved for each commodity included:

• Identify the total size of the market and where possible the regional distribution of activities
• Determine the linkages between the areas where the goods are produced or imported and where they are consumed or exported.

In developing future freight forecasts, information was drawn from a wide range of sources including the views of industry stakeholders, forecasts from the Ministries, trade associations, key producers and other authoritative sources, and analysis of the recent and longer term trends in freight growth by commodity. These forecasts were supported by forecasts of key economic drivers such as population and GDP growth, particular factors affecting growth at a regional level, and an assessment of the potential impacts of supply constraints. Commodities were defined as primarily demand driven or supply constrained and appropriate indices based on both national macroeconomic and regional factors affecting demand and supply were developed.

Andrew led a team engaged to undertake an economic assessment, on a portfolio approach, for the RoNS program. This included a:

•  Review of existing conventional economic assessments;
•  Critique and integration of wider economic benefits (broader productivity and economic growth benefits) at a macro and regional level;
•  Sensitivity testing of the costs and benefits of the portfolio to understand the effect of accelerating the delivery program;
•  Quantification of the benefits of the RoNS on a portfolio basis and benefits from accelerating the implementation of the RoNS.

A number of international case studies were researched to provide best practice reference points for assessing the approach to the use of WEBs and the at a portfolio level.

Andrew was part of a team that undertook the commercial due diligence on the acquisition of Toll New Zealand’s rail and ferry business by the NZ Government. His scope included assessment of revenue quality across the rail freight, rail passenger and inter-island ferry businesses and strategic advice for the incoming board. Subsequently engaged by KiwiRail to develop a pricing strategy for the freight forwarding market.

Andrew provided commercial advice to the Queensland Government on the separation and sale of QR. Advice was provided on a number of issues including options for separation of the business, future network management and access and community service obligation continuity in a commercial environment. Specific detailed assessment was undertaken of QR’s regional freight and livestock services.